Abstraction
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Forecasting
AI Progress and Safety
Archive
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
Abundance Starts with Mobility
skip the gridlock and take the faster route to abundance
May 14
•
Jonathan Mann
6
Share this post
Abstraction
Abundance Starts with Mobility
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
5
April 2025
Discovering Better World Models
separating discernment from delusion
Apr 24
•
Jonathan Mann
4
Share this post
Abstraction
Discovering Better World Models
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Quick Updates
new articles, lessonline, and samotsvety coming to nyc in june
Apr 23
•
Jonathan Mann
5
Share this post
Abstraction
Quick Updates
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
December 2024
When to Use Forecasting for Decisions
seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is
Dec 13, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
4
Share this post
Abstraction
When to Use Forecasting for Decisions
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
August 2024
Reframing Bowling Alone
connecting the dots with network theory
Aug 22, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
3
Share this post
Abstraction
Reframing Bowling Alone
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
AI Is Smarter Than You Realize
even if progress stalls (and it won't), we've only started to tap its potential
Aug 9, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
2
Share this post
Abstraction
AI Is Smarter Than You Realize
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
July 2024
Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good
luck can make mediocre forecasters seem better than they are
Jul 12, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
9
Share this post
Abstraction
Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
April 2024
Book Bets
turn disagreements into learning opportunities
Apr 28, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
3
Share this post
Abstraction
Book Bets
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
3
March 2024
2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts
reflections and takeaways
Mar 25, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
3
Share this post
Abstraction
2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
January 2024
When AI Can Do All Jobs
what humans can do after AI achieves cognitive superiority
Jan 22, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
4
Share this post
Abstraction
When AI Can Do All Jobs
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Why I Signed the AI Treaty Open Letter
and why you should consider doing the same
Jan 6, 2024
•
Jonathan Mann
1
Share this post
Abstraction
Why I Signed the AI Treaty Open Letter
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
November 2023
Forecast Scoring Methods
which method is best for identifying top forecasters?
Nov 7, 2023
•
Jonathan Mann
4
Share this post
Abstraction
Forecast Scoring Methods
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts