Abstraction

Self-Deceiving AI

works well enough for humans

Oct 6 • Jonathan Mann

3

2

September 2026

When Our Leverage Evaporates

when our cost exceeds our value

Sep 21 • Jonathan Mann

4

2

July 2026

AI Still Isn’t Coming for Your Job -- Yet

the technology may be ready, but organizations are not

Jul 24 • Jonathan Mann

9

1

The QueensLink Compromise

a busway preserves the option for future rail

Jul 6 • Jonathan Mann

5

June 2026

The Jagged Boom

welfare will grow faster than the economy

Jun 12 • Jonathan Mann

7

1

Grading World Models

testing beliefs against reality

Jun 5 • Jonathan Mann

4

February 2026

Manufacturing Epistemic Density

proximity without discovery is wasted

Feb 16 • Jonathan Mann

7

Abundists Should Hedge Their Bets

remote work buys time for housing reform

Feb 5 • Jonathan Mann

5

1

January 2026

The Bitter Pipeline

frontier models made my forecasting pipeline obsolete

Jan 28 • Jonathan Mann

9

6

Pre-Mortem and Sanity Check

the final gate in the forecast pipeline

Jan 14 • Jonathan Mann

7

1

Decay Functions

how probability declines as time passes

Jan 9 • Jonathan Mann

6

1

Classification and Method Selection

matching questions to the right forecasting approach

Jan 8 • Jonathan Mann

6

2