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Reframing Bowling Alone
connecting the dots with network theory
 • 
Jonathan Mann
AI Is Smarter Than You Realize
even if progress stalls (and it won't), we've only started to tap its potential
 • 
Jonathan Mann

July 2024

Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good
luck can make mediocre forecasters seem better than they are
 • 
Jonathan Mann

April 2024

Book Bets
turn disagreements into learning opportunities
 • 
Jonathan Mann
3

March 2024

2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts
reflections and takeaways
 • 
Jonathan Mann
1

January 2024

When AI Can Do All Jobs
what humans can do after AI achieves cognitive superiority
 • 
Jonathan Mann
Why I Signed the AI Treaty Open Letter
and why you should consider doing the same
 • 
Jonathan Mann
1

November 2023

Forecast Scoring Methods
which method is best for identifying top forecasters?
 • 
Jonathan Mann

September 2023

Scoring Rules
incentivizing honest forecasts
 • 
Jonathan Mann
2
Identifying Top Forecasters
a new series on methods for separating the best from the rest
 • 
Jonathan Mann

August 2023

Iterative Markets Explained
a concrete example of how they could work
 • 
Jonathan Mann
6
Iterative Prediction Markets
Forecasting Tomorrow's Forecasts
 • 
Jonathan Mann
8
© 2024 Jonathan Mann
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