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2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts
reflections and takeaways
 • 
Jonathan Mann
1

January 2024

When AI Can Do All Jobs
what humans can do after AI achieves cognitive superiority
 • 
Jonathan Mann
Why I Signed the AI Treaty Open Letter
and why you should consider doing the same
 • 
Jonathan Mann
1

November 2023

Forecast Scoring Methods
which method is best for identifying top forecasters?
 • 
Jonathan Mann

September 2023

Scoring Rules
incentivizing honest forecasts
 • 
Jonathan Mann
2
Identifying Top Forecasters
a new series on methods for separating the best from the rest
 • 
Jonathan Mann

August 2023

Iterative Markets Explained
a concrete example of how they could work
 • 
Jonathan Mann
6
Iterative Prediction Markets
Forecasting Tomorrow's Forecasts
 • 
Jonathan Mann
8

July 2023

Making Better Forecasts
why it's important and a process for doing it
 • 
Jonathan Mann

June 2023

"AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet" In Asterisk Magazine
extra notes on the counterfactual scenario I didn't have space for in the article
 • 
Jonathan Mann

May 2023

Why AI X-Risk Gets Overestimated
Most AI X-Riskers have only ever encountered strawman skeptics
 • 
Jonathan Mann

April 2023

How AI Could Take Over the World
and bring an end to human civilization
 • 
Jonathan Mann
3
© 2024 Jonathan Mann
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