Archive - Abstraction

When to Use Forecasting for Decisions

seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is

Dec 13 •

August 2024

July 2024

Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good

luck can make mediocre forecasters seem better than they are

Jul 12 •

April 2024

turn disagreements into learning opportunities

Apr 28 •

March 2024

2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts

reflections and takeaways

Mar 25 •

January 2024

November 2023

Forecast Scoring Methods

which method is best for identifying top forecasters?

Nov 7, 2023 •

September 2023

incentivizing honest forecasts

Sep 26, 2023 •

Identifying Top Forecasters

a new series on methods for separating the best from the rest

Sep 17, 2023 •

August 2023

Iterative Markets Explained

a concrete example of how they could work

Aug 15, 2023 •

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