Forecasting

Reframing Bowling Alone

connecting the dots with network theory

Aug 22 •

Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good

luck can make mediocre forecasters seem better than they are

Jul 12 •

turn disagreements into learning opportunities

Apr 28 •

2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts

reflections and takeaways

Mar 25 •

Forecast Scoring Methods

which method is best for identifying top forecasters?

Nov 7, 2023 •

incentivizing honest forecasts

Sep 26, 2023 •

Identifying Top Forecasters

a new series on methods for separating the best from the rest

Sep 17, 2023 •

Iterative Prediction Markets

Forecasting Tomorrow's Forecasts

Aug 8, 2023 •

Making Better Forecasts

why it's important and a process for doing it

Jul 2, 2023 •

"AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet" In Asterisk Magazine

extra notes on the counterfactual scenario I didn't have space for in the article

Jun 27, 2023 •

Against Forecasting Tournaments

Why tournaments often encourage biased forecasting

Feb 6, 2023 •

Judicious Prospecting

Finding opportunities worth pursuing

Jan 24, 2023 •

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