Forecasting

Pre-Mortem and Sanity Check

the final gate in the forecast pipeline

Jan 14 • Jonathan Mann

Decay Functions

how probability declines as time passes

Jan 9 • Jonathan Mann

Classification and Method Selection

matching questions to the right forecasting approach

Jan 8 • Jonathan Mann

The Broken Leg Check

the ideal first step in the pipeline for both humans and bots

Jan 7 • Jonathan Mann

Deploying a Forecasting Bot

making testing and iteration affordable

Jan 5 • Jonathan Mann

Discovering Better World Models

separating discernment from delusion

Apr 24, 2025 • Jonathan Mann

When to Use Forecasting for Decisions

seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is

Dec 13, 2024 • Jonathan Mann

Reframing Bowling Alone

connecting the dots with network theory

Aug 22, 2024 • Jonathan Mann

Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good

luck can make mediocre forecasters seem better than they are

Jul 12, 2024 • Jonathan Mann

turn disagreements into learning opportunities

Apr 28, 2024 • Jonathan Mann

2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts

reflections and takeaways

Mar 25, 2024 • Jonathan Mann

Forecast Scoring Methods

which method is best for identifying top forecasters?

Nov 7, 2023 • Jonathan Mann

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