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When to Use Forecasting for Decisions
seldom needed, but don't neglect it when it is
Dec 13
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Jonathan Mann
4
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When to Use Forecasting for Decisions
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Reframing Bowling Alone
connecting the dots with network theory
Aug 22
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Jonathan Mann
3
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Reframing Bowling Alone
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Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good
luck can make mediocre forecasters seem better than they are
Jul 12
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Jonathan Mann
9
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Many Top Forecasters Aren't That Good
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Book Bets
turn disagreements into learning opportunities
Apr 28
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Jonathan Mann
3
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Book Bets
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2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts
reflections and takeaways
Mar 25
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Jonathan Mann
3
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2023 ACX Forecast Contest Thoughts
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Forecast Scoring Methods
which method is best for identifying top forecasters?
Nov 7, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
4
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Forecast Scoring Methods
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Scoring Rules
incentivizing honest forecasts
Sep 26, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
4
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Scoring Rules
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Identifying Top Forecasters
a new series on methods for separating the best from the rest
Sep 17, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
5
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Identifying Top Forecasters
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Iterative Prediction Markets
Forecasting Tomorrow's Forecasts
Aug 8, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
4
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Iterative Prediction Markets
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Making Better Forecasts
why it's important and a process for doing it
Jul 2, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
3
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Making Better Forecasts
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"AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet" In Asterisk Magazine
extra notes on the counterfactual scenario I didn't have space for in the article
Jun 27, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
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"AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet" In Asterisk Magazine
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Against Forecasting Tournaments
Why tournaments often encourage biased forecasting
Feb 6, 2023
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Jonathan Mann
4
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Against Forecasting Tournaments
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