I'm really interested in your thoughts on when it makes sense to use log scoring! It occurs to me that one striking illustration of the problem with mean absolute error is that if something happens 50% of the time, your MAE will be the same no matter what your forecast is. If you said that coin flips never come up heads, your MAE will be the same as it would be if you correctly predicted they'd up heads half the time.
I'm really interested in your thoughts on when it makes sense to use log scoring! It occurs to me that one striking illustration of the problem with mean absolute error is that if something happens 50% of the time, your MAE will be the same no matter what your forecast is. If you said that coin flips never come up heads, your MAE will be the same as it would be if you correctly predicted they'd up heads half the time.