It seems like the complication is in defining a "broken leg" event. For example, even in the case of Maduro, I would guess that there is a non-zero chance that he could be found not guilty or released for other reasons before the end of the year. The broken leg optimization does not take into account that the broken leg event itself could face a broken leg event.
Thanks, in this case "Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026?" has already come to pass. Even if he somehow escapes or is released (both very unlikely) and gets back in office (even more unlikely), he will still have already ceased to be president for a time satisfying the question, but I take your point. I'll deal with this in a coming post, but part of the answer involves clamping the confidence. It's a bit involved, so stay tuned for the explanation that should be ready a few posts later.
It seems like the complication is in defining a "broken leg" event. For example, even in the case of Maduro, I would guess that there is a non-zero chance that he could be found not guilty or released for other reasons before the end of the year. The broken leg optimization does not take into account that the broken leg event itself could face a broken leg event.
Thanks, in this case "Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026?" has already come to pass. Even if he somehow escapes or is released (both very unlikely) and gets back in office (even more unlikely), he will still have already ceased to be president for a time satisfying the question, but I take your point. I'll deal with this in a coming post, but part of the answer involves clamping the confidence. It's a bit involved, so stay tuned for the explanation that should be ready a few posts later.