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Identifying Top Forecasters
a new series on methods for separating the best from the rest
Sep 17
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Jonathan Mann
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Identifying Top Forecasters
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New
Top
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Iterative Markets Explained
a concrete example of how they could work
Aug 15
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Jonathan Mann
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Iterative Markets Explained
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6
Iterative Prediction Markets
Forecasting Tomorrow's Forecasts
Aug 8
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Jonathan Mann
4
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Iterative Prediction Markets
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Making Better Forecasts
why it's important and a process for doing it
Jul 2
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Jonathan Mann
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Making Better Forecasts
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"AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet" In Asterisk Magazine
extra notes on the counterfactual scenario I didn't have space for in the article
Jun 27
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Jonathan Mann
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"AI Isn’t Coming for Tech Jobs—Yet" In Asterisk Magazine
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Why AI X-Risk Gets Overestimated
Most AI X-Riskers have only ever encountered strawman skeptics
May 16
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Jonathan Mann
2
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Why AI X-Risk Gets Overestimated
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How AI Could Take Over the World
and bring an end to human civilization
Apr 17
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Jonathan Mann
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How AI Could Take Over the World
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AGI is a Red Herring
When it comes to the threats from AI, there isn't some magic threshold where it suddenly becomes dangerous
Apr 7
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Jonathan Mann
1
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AGI is a Red Herring
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The ideal is when nothing more can be abstracted away
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Abstraction
The ideal is when nothing more can be abstracted away
By Jonathan Mann
· Launched 8 months ago
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